Spurs to progress – by fair means or foul

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Son Heung-min

A preview of Tuesday’s Champions League last-16 ties with a bet on fouls in the Spurs game looking strong, while Ajax offer value against Real Madrid.

Tottenham (-3) to commit more fouls @ 20/21

Spurs carry an impressive 3-0 lead into this game and an early goal for them will surely kill the tie off – as if the visitors do find the net, Dortmund will need five.

Given Dortmund have won just one of their last seven, 27/10 about an away win is tempting.

Already low on confidence, Dortmund heads will likely go down if they concede first and with Harry Kane back and Heung-min Son a big threat, Spurs have the ability to pick them off on the break.

However, for a better bet, head into the specials markets where Spurs should be backed on the fouls handicaps.

They have committed the most fouls in this season’s competition (111), while Dortmund have conceded the fewest (54) – they are also the lowest foulers domestically.

For those struggling with the maths, Spurs have committed more than twice as many (15.86 per game to 7.71).

In the first leg, Spurs won the count 13-5 and they will likely be chasing the ball a lot in this one. They are just shy of even money on the -3 line, which looks good business.

Ajax to beat Real Madrid @ 17/4

Real won the first leg but the result was harsh on Ajax, who caused all sorts of problems.

In the three weeks since, Ajax have won three out of three, scoring 13 goals, while Real’s season has crumbled. They’ve gone out of the Copa del Rey and have seen their title hopes all but ended after three home defeats in a row.

If Ajax can match their performance levels from Amsterdam, a home side without Sergio Ramos could lose again and the Dutch look worth a punt at 17/4.

Nacho to be carded @ 27/10

It’s also worth backing Nacho – the man set to replace Ramos at the back – to be carded at 27/10.

He’s been in and out of the side – played at right-back and centre-back – and here must deal with the red-hot Dusan Tadic, who was man of the match in the first leg.

Nacho has been carded in seven of his 22 games this season, including four of the last eight. With strict ref Felix Brych in charge, the price is too big to ignore.

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