Italy have only failed on one occasion to qualify for the World Cup finals, but a play-off against Sweden could put them in danger of doubling that tally.
The Azzurri finished second in their group behind Spain, no shame in that you might say, but their recent performances give more reason to be concerned.
Their final two group games saw them held to a 1-1 draw at home to Macedonia and sneak a 1-0 win in Albania.
With goals having been something of a problem for Italy in recent games, who is capable of stepping up and delivering at such a crucial time?
Striker Ciro Immobile has already scored 18 times for Lazio this season and finds the net on average once every four games for his country. So, as he is without a goal in his last three Azzurri outings, 9/4 to score at any time is worthy of a second look.
Hosts Sweden go into the game also in inconsistent form, having lost two of their final four qualifiers.
However, their form on home soil has been impressive, with just two points dropped in Sweden in qualification, with group winners France seen off 2-1.
Scoring goals also seems to be less of a problem for the Swedes than it is for the Italians, with Marcus Berg the star of the show with eight goals so far in qualifiers.
If Berg can deliver, then Sweden could get out of the game with a slight advantage for the second leg, so 33/10 for the hosts to win to zero is one to ponder.
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