The penultimate day of the Tour de France presents the final day of real racing and Tom Dumoulin can do the business on a tricky time-trial course.
Dumoulin to win stage @ 9/5
The Dutchman has been in fabulous form throughout the Tour and it is perhaps telling that for all the break and attacks, yellow jersey holder Geraint Thomas has made sure he has stuck to Dumoulin’s wheel at all times.
Although it may not be a Tour-winning effort today due to Thomas’ own excellence against the clock, the Team Sunweb man can pick up his first win of this year’s Grande Boucle on a course that suits him nicely.
The 31km parcours from Saint-Pee-sur-Nivelle to Espelette is the same distance and quite similar in profile to the one he won world time-trial gold on in 2017.
It is punctuated by a number of ill-timed undulations and a notable climb in the Cote de Pinodieta, which averages out at 10.2% but touches 21% at certain points.
Friday’s brilliant winner Primoz Roglic showed his form by breaking away from the other contenders and is a serious time-trialist himself.
However, he seems to be more favoured to shorter efforts and lost to Dumoulin in Bergen last year by almost 58 seconds.
Roglic is the 1/1 favourite, but Dumoulin is the man for me.
Bodnar to win stage @ 25/1
Elsewhere, those looking for a big each-way price may fancy the 25/1 on Maciej Bodnar, who won the stage 20 time-trial 12 months ago.
The Pole is in form after he recently claimed his national jersey and will have been saving himself for this.
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